Any trader is glad when there are handy statistics, indicators that help to make a more accurate prediction on the event. Such details can include xG statistics. In this article, let's examine what it is and how xG statistics can be useful in betting pari match.
What are xG statistics?
The xG statistic is a type of probability prediction. There are accurate statistics such as: number of goals, cards, etc. And there are those that show the estimated number of shots on goal, goals, etc. These include xG statistics.
The xG statistic shows the probability with which a goal may be scored from each shot in the match. It is the shots a player takes at goal that count. The coach from Norway, Egil Olsen, laid the foundation for the development of xG statistics.
He divided the shots into several categories:
The Norwegian tactic was to maximize the number of dangerous shots at other people's goal and minimize the number of allowed strikes in theirs. Soccer is a sport in which few goals are scored. That is why the position of teams in the standings does not always give an objective assessment of team performance.
For example, it often happens in soccer that the team makes about 10 dangerous shots at the opponent's goal, without scoring, while missing the only real chance of the opponent.
It is xG statistics in this case helps to assess the strength of a particular team. For example, take a particular moment of the match, when the striker beats the goalkeeper and is about to shoot into an almost empty net. There's a huge goal in front of him and one defender, who is going to jump to block the path of the ball. What are the chances of a goal? Fans and commentators would argue that this is a one hundred percent chance, but xG statistics can give a more accurate prediction. For example, in this situation, it estimates the probability of a goal at 81%, that is, the possibility that a player will miss is there.
It turns out that xG statistics shows the real state of affairs in the match: how much the team attacked and escalated, the quality of play of certain players and much more. You can even keep track of how the team usually shows itself when it leads in the score or vice versa, as well as how much the team scores during certain periods of the season, etc. All of this can greatly help the trader when making a prediction on the match.
What are the peculiarities of xG statistics?
The main thing to note about xG statistics is the fact that it takes into account absolutely all shots that are directed towards the goal. And the probability of a goal is calculated at the very moment when the player touched the ball with his boot. That is, where the ball went after that shot does not matter.
What will influence the high probability of a goal?
- The distance to the goal;
- the angle of shot;
- the goalkeeper's position;
- the number of defenders covering the shot.
These are the main factors, but xG statistics also take into account secondary factors, such as:
- strength of the player;
- the time spent by the player on the field;
- The player's statistical performance on kicks from a given position.
How to get xG statistics?
There are several ways to get xG statistics:
- Assemble your own team of analysts and develop software;
- Acquisition of tactical data from special websites;
- Gathering on the basis of spatial and temporal data.
The first method is, of course, quite difficult for a caper. The third way is mainly used by the clubs that have special equipment. The second way is the most convenient, but also represents a certain expense for the trader.
Using xG Statistics
xG statistics is becoming more and more popular. At the current moment it is most often used:
- Cappers (they turn to statistics data to make a more accurate prediction);
- Soccer clubs (analyze their game, track the quality of players);
- Sports media (analyze games).
The main advantage of using advanced statistics for a bettor is the ability to get accurate indicators of the team, player. This helps to make a more accurate prediction for the match, choose a winning strategy.
xG statistics is a quality and reliable indicator. There are many cases where experienced bettors used xG statistics data in compiling their betting strategies and increased their bankroll. Now xG statistics is also used by coaches of leading European clubs. Given the speed of technology development, very soon this type of statistics will become clear and accessible to most users.